We are partially back online ; something is wrong with the power in the house, we'll be trying to determine if there is a problem inside or a problem outside. I may or may not blog in the short term, but I will be keeping an eye on Hurricane Ivan, which seems to be heading right for us.

People will remember the Hurricane Season of 2004 for years to come, I can tell you THAT.

Well, the storm seems to want to be closer to us. It is heading due West, though the weather seers say it will head further North shortly. We'll see. As it is now, it will make landfall considerably closer to us, around Port St Lucie. Here is my latest map with all the fancy notes.

My family, glued to the TV set in the living room, just told me that:

1) 17 babies have been born at Broward General Hospital in the last 24 hours, and there are 46 women getting ready to deliver right now. The storm, you see, carries with it a very low atmospheric pressure. Hurricanes leave a lot more in their wake than debris.

2) One of the local shelters apparently had a man who exhibited symptoms of Tuberculosis. Not only is everyone in that shelter locked down for the hurricane, they will be quarantined until the test results are back.

So much more happens during these things than just rain falling.

Dad and I went out after one of the feeder bands passed over us to quickly go and assess the lines on the boat to make sure she was riding the storm well.

I suppose the only thing I can say is that we are terribly grateful that our family is doing well. It certainly isn't the same for everyone. Trees are down in many places, two huge banyan trees just blocks from my house, in fact. These things are several stories tall, and thankfully didn't crush any homes when they fell. We even saw a roof demolished and laying in the street in pieces.

I'll show you some of the photos I took. I'm just glad to be south of the eye, but damage is being handed out everywhere, even here. This picture of the wind speeds should say it all, I think.

	The nursery down the block won't have their windscreens much longer, even though they are tied down quite firmly.
	Trees limbs like this are down on just about every block
	You have to admire how well designed the simple palm tree is. They can grow anywhere, and take these storms very well.
	Here on Isle of Venice in downtown Fort Lauderdale, it seems that Frances got her hand in one of the apartment building roofs. She never did stop ripping chunks of it out and tossing them to the street below.
	Here is Dad checking out the lines, they look good.
	Some friends of my parents asked me to post this picture so they could see their boat; I took this yesterday. If we go over to check the lines again, we'll take another picture for you.
	Traffic lights are out everywshere
	More plywood humor on display
	Here is a Banyan (Ficus) tree over by the cemetary, only two blocks from our house. It survived the last 50 years, but not today.
	Here is another large Banyan Tree. When this fell, it blocked the entire road like a gree wall. This is about 4 blocks from my house in the other direction.

Just a quick note, I'll make some more maps around 5:30pm or so. The storm is almost standing still, and has drifted almost due west in the last few hours. That's not good news.

DATA FROM RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST HOUR. HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

Storm moved just a touch North again, not much different from the last reading as far as my house is concerned. A little bit worse for Melbourne. Landfall a scant few miles North of Vero Beach.

The family is out in the Living Room reading books, watching the news. According to the news local businesses, because of the prolonged wait, are telling workers that they have to come into work or they will lose their jobs. Local city officials and whatnot are threatening these businesses in news interviews, telling them that they can't do that.

Long ago, I might have been impressed - our elected representatives working hard to protect the people.

I am so disenchanted with the news and politics that I just get disgusted, wondering if there is any truth to the story at all or if the politicians and news media think that such stories will pacify us, make us feel safe. Case in point: just look at the recent story with the AP reporter who said that George W. Bush announced Clinton's impending Heart Surgery and wished him well. The reporter then said that thousands in the crowd "boo'd" and that the President did nothing to quell the negativity. As it turns out, if you listen to the audio of the event, no one "boo'd" at all. Lisa, a Blogger at RightVoices.Com reported that her father was at the event and said "Nope, no boo-ing" when asked about it.

(Thanks to Dan and Angi for pointing me to that article)

How can the media make something like that up out of whole cloth and get away with it? It's so infuriating!

I can't be the only one who is really beginning to hate these people, and the result is me listening to my local reporters and not trusting them at all, truthful or not. It's like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. If the Media doesn't start policing itself soon, there will be consequences as people like me simply turn them off and assume that most of what they say is a lie.

What a sad state of affairs.

Do you think independant internet news and bloggers will help fill the credibility void that is being created now?

Or am I just growing older and more cynical?

I was pleased enough at the latest maps and discussions I found on the NOAA website this morning. (Here's my latest map) The storm did a funny little dance over Grand Bahama Island, thankfully went to the right of Freeport instead of the left but did the people there no favors by circling around a bit before heading our way. The bottom line for my house is that the storm will be 20 miles further away and a tiny bit slower in windspeed at it's closest point to us. The people in Fort Pierce and Vero Beach aren't any happier, but the people in Stuart would rather be underneath it. Only time will tell where she really makes landfall. She lost her "eye" last night as she stumbled about confused in front of GBI, but she has it back now. That's a shame, it indicates a cohesive and well formed storm, I was kind of hoping that it disintegrated into a mess before it hit. Even though the seers at NOAA don't have it gaining much windspeed before it hits us, from our perspective: there is no more land to slow her down, she's moving slow so she has the opportunity to grow, she is well formed and making for the warm waters of the gulfstream. Hurricanes loooooooove warm water.

It's just a waiting game. Most of the people here are frustrated that their lives are put on hold over Labor Day weekend while we stare at images of this recalcitrant storm who is in no great hurry to get here, but doesn't seem to be interested in anyone else but us.

Well, the storm has lost some of its cohesion, it has drifted a bit further south, the winds have died down a little bit but the storm remains a giant furball. Take a look at the latest image that I put together for the full story. The bad news for me is that it will be at its strongest (115 MPH) at roughly the same time it will be at its closest point to my house (66 miles or so).

Here is a local story about conditions at the moment.

Some pertinent excerpts:

Hurricane Frances lost some steam and hesitated off the Florida coast Friday, prolonging the anxiety among the millions evacuated and raising fears of a slow, ruinous drenching over the Labor Day weekend.

The storm, which was downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane, is expected to come ashore with up to 20 inches of rain as early as Saturday afternoon, nearly a day later than earlier predictions.

Frances' sustained winds have dropped to 105 mph with higher gusts and continues to lumber through the Bahamas in a west-northwest direction at 4 mph.

At 4:30 p.m. about 90,000 people had lost power in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. A total of about 170,000 homes had been powerless during the day, but FPL was able to restore electricity to many. By 9:47 p.m., 16,000 Broward residents remained without power.

"We go out and get them fixed between feeder bands, but the bands are getting closer and closer together, so we're not able to do as much,'' FPL spokesman Bill Swank said. "At some point, we won't be able to keep going out. We'll have to wait until the storm passes.''

The powerlines usually are often disrupted when debris, such as tree branches or metal sheeting, knocks them down and cuases them to short out.

``We can expect widespread, extensive power outages. There will likely be millions of people without power. And with a slow moving storm, crews won't even be able to start restoration for a while,'' said Craig Fugate, state emergency operations chief.

``Power is going to go out, and for a lot of people, and for more than just a few days.''

Here are a few photos to share from "the calm before the storm". The one feeder band, or outer pinwheel arm, has already passed overhead giving us a taste of what is to come. It is very calm outside right now; the skies are clear, but the wind alternates from dead to brisk. There are no birds in the sky. We all know it is coming.

	This is a shot of the front of our house. You can see the fiberglass shutters on the left, and the plywood over my home office window. The Black Grand marquis is the "Wendy Mobile".
	This was a house down the road. During Hurricane Andrew people sprayed their house numbers and insurance plan numbers on the plywood in front of their house, or more somber messages like "still alive". Since the storm has not hit yet, a little more bravado is evident
	3/4 inch plywood is the shield of choice for most windows and doors. They were selling the stuff out of the backs of trucks, on the side of the road, out of businesses that don't even sell wood. I was pleased to see that the prices were not really that bad. It was a community striving to defend itself.
	This is the boat I grew up on. Mom and Dad still live there. The marine community here in Fort Lauderdale is enormous. There is an entire community that lives on the water. Here, you can see "Tattoo" with her Storm lines out, ready to meet Frances.
	Dad called this temporarily engineered buffer a "bumper board". It goes by many names. A neighboring captain asked dad if he had any "junk board", and Dad knew exactly what he meant.
	As the storm gets nearer, boats no longer travel the waterways. Sailors run lines across the waterway, and concrete pylons are what they are interested in.
	Here is a view of Tattoo from the bow. Do you think we have enough lines? Me neither. Let's put a few more out there.
	Here is Dad taking up some slack on one of our many springs
	There's Dad. Pretty good looking guy, eh?
	Danny in repose as we check the lines on Tattoo
	It is common practice to dump your patio furniture in your pool ; unless the storm goes right over your head, it is a pretty safe place. After Andrew, they even found a shark in this one home's pool!
	This is me holding up one of the branches that came down during the one feeder band that passed over head. I can't wait to see what the city, streets and my yard looks like after the hurricane itself passes! NOT!

Well, little things have changed, but not much. Go ahead and take a look at my latest image; landfall a little bit South, between Fort Pierce and Vero Beach. A little further away from Orlando, but higher winds. Still going to strafe us slightly here at our house with hurricane force winds, but not nearly as bad as some people will get it.

Whew! I was caught outside putting a few extra wood screws into a fence that I thought didn't look sturdy enough when that first feeder band rolled over us. It was just the trailing edge of the storm and it was gone almost as soon as it arrived, a thin pinwheel warning of what was to come. The local news channel said that they measured a wind gust on the beach (we are 2.95 miles from the beach by my map) that was 70 miles per hour. I know exactly which gust they were talking about, it blinded me when I was trying to drive in a screw.

Still, I stayed outside a bit longer, long enough for the whole feeder band to pass. I watched carefully how our defenses held, just to make sure all was well before we bunkered down for the storm. I'll venture out again this evening if I get a dry spell, long enough to grill some tenderloin steaks that mom picked up from the Mediterranean Market on Las Olas Blvd. They have a great selection of organically grown meats, duck, fish, etc; their lobster is quite reasonable.

Hmmm... Perhaps I am thinking a bit too much about dinner.

Everyone is in good spirits because it appears the storm will make landfall quite a bit North. Mostly we are hoping that the power does not go out. Young Daniel is irritated because we always have a chore of some sort for him to do instead of allowing him to retreat to his room to play video games. Well, perhaps irritated is too strong a word. He is quick to help out and it is not hard to make him smile, but he certainly does not relish the opportunity to spend his afternoon in preparation for Hurricane Frances. :)

Dad just came in ; he wants to go over to our sailboat (Mom and Dad live on a 48' Coronado) to see how the lines held during that last feederband. Perhaps I'll bring a camera along to try and get some shots of "Fort Lauderdale Before the Storm"

The 5 o'clock update should be out by now. I'll update my maps and charts, see how things are progressing, write a report for you and then head over to the boat.

Oh, by the way. I think it is fair to remind you that this website is hosted here in my house, not at my commercial facility. We have a Frame Relay T1 line here in our home; if you can't get the website... well... You know what happened. :)

Here are a few resources for you to use as you track Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Ivan, much better than the pre-digested weather reports you get from the mainstream media.

The US maintains Data Buoys around our nation and worldwide territories. Every hour (or some such interval) they upload wind speed, ocean, wwave height and other data (depending on the type of station or buoy) to a sattelite. Observing the data from these buoys tell us what is happening right now, and you can watch it from the internet!

You will also find local radar and amateur weather stations interesting.

Of course, the NOAA reports that are released at regular intervals are the best source of information ; everything else helps us get a clearer picture of what is happening and where.

NOAA
The best information is released at 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm. Intermediary advisories are released at 8am, 2pm, 8pm and 2am. These advisories add only positional data and relevant windspeeds, etc. not probability tracks.


1. Public Advisory for IVAN


2. Discussion for IVAN


3. Maps and Charts for IVAN

RADARS
I look at these radars to see what is over my head, keeping an eye out for impending heavy concentrations


4. Radar out of Melbourne
   Close to where the storm will land


5. Radar out of Miami
   Closer to our home, a single image


6. Radar out of Miami
   An animated loop of current images


7. Real Time GOES (Satellite) Imagery
   Infrared perspective, animated loop



WEATHER STATIONS
Great windspeed, gusts, wave height, etc. data for various local regions


8. Weather Data from Melbourne International Airport


9. National Data Buoy in Settlement Point, Grand Bahama Island: Station SPGF1


10. National Data Buoy in Lake Worth Florida: Station LKWF1


11. National Data Buoy in Cape Canaveral: Station 41009


12. Weather from the Airport at Nassau, Bahamas (MYNN)


13. Weather from the Airport in Fort Lauderdale, Florida (KFLL)
    This is very close to my house. Whatever you see here, is also at my house.


14. Weather from the Airport in Orlando, Florida. This is the Orlando International Airport. (KMCO)


15. Weather from the Municipal Airport in Kissimmee, Florida (KISM) not far from Orlando.

You might want to keep an eye on this list as I'll add to it if I find more interesting sources of information.

Well, it gets better for MY house each time we get an update, it seems. This is a relief. Instead of another Hurricane Fiesta (We went to one at Tequila Sunrise last evening; great food, good margaritas) tonight though, we're going to grill steaks.

Anyway, onto business. Here is my latest drawing ; as you can see, it drifts even further North and East of Freeport, which is great, and slightly more North of a Landfall for us, which is good for Vero Beach but not as good for Melbourne. Lucky for Melbourne, this storm is getting weaker. Still, it will arrive wet and slow and with 120 MPH winds that will stay for hours. It seems like a parody to be thankful for that, but yesterday this looked much worse: 140 MPG winds with gusts to 180. That would not be horrible, that would be utterly devastating.

Mercy comes in many forms, it seems.

Anyway, the next advisory is at 2pm but it is only an intermediate one with reports on winds and location. The next probability / discussion advisory will be 5pm. I probably won't Blog about the storm until after I digest that.

Take care!

Well, the storm is weakening. That is wonderful news. It has also drifted a small bit North, which will put Freeport (Bahamas) on the better side of the storm. I pray that it remains that way, a lot of people live in Freeport. I visited the Bahamas many times in my youth, and my parents even lived there nearly the entire time I was in the US Navy. I am very fond of the place, the people.

It passed right over the length of the Eluthera Islands, however, and in a most devestating way. I hang my head, it is one place I have never been and my father's favorite of all.

Here is my latest drawing of the hurricane. The track has the Hurricane making landfall in almost exactly the same place, but will pass closer to Orlando than before, and heading higher on its egress from our great state. Because it is fat and slow (kind of like me) it will fall apart over land and hopefully the panhandle will get a tropical storm instead of a hurricane.

I'll give you another update with the 11 o'clock data here in about an hour.