It seems that we are making more and more progress on trying to identify Near Earth Objects before they become potential threats. We'll probably hear more about these things now that we are actively looking for them, registering them in our warning system.

2029, April 13 an Asteroid named 2004 MN4 of around 400 meters is predicted to pass near Earth, according to a recent discovery. The Asteroid orbits the sun once every 324 days. If an impact occurs, 2004 MN4 will yield approx. 1600 megatons of energy.

NASA’s Near Earth Object Program (NEOP) is unable to verify the flyby distance and say that there is a possibility of the Asteroid colliding with Earth. According the NASA, the probability of impact is 1:60 (one in sixty). Further more the impact predictability could reduce or even get eliminated, as and when new data are received.

With a discovery of a new asteroid or comet, predictions for where the object will be in a month or decade are unknown. For the majority of objects, the initial calculations are sufficient to show that they will not make any close passes by the Earth within the next century. However, for some objects, close approaches and possible collisions with the Earth cannot be completely ruled out.

The Torino Scale utilizes numbers that range from 0 to 10, where 0 indicates an object has a zero or negligibly small chance of collision with the Earth. (Zero is also used to categorize any object that is too small to penetrate the Earth's atmosphere intact, in the event that a collision does occur.) Where as Level 10 indicates that a collision is almost certain, and the impacting object is so large that it is capable of causing a global climatic disaster.

The Asteroid named 2004 MN4 has been assigned level 4 [A close encounter, with 1% or greater chance of a collision capable of causing regional devastation.], the first Asteroid to get this level rating. Roy Tucker, David Tholen and Fabrizio Bernardi of NASA discovered the 2004 MN4 Asteroid in June 19, 2004, from Kitt Peak – Arizona.

NASA would be monitoring the Asteroid and new telescopic observations may lead to reassignment to Level 0 where the likelihood of a collision is zero.

Posted by Michael at December 29, 2004 07:18 PM