I thought this election was going to be very close, but from the voodoo math that I did this evening, I think that the election favors Kerry and the Democrats.

If you want to know more, read on and I will explain my voodoo prognosis...

First, let's take a look at how the states voted in the 2000 election. Then, we'll take into consideration the redistribution of electoral college votes based on the 2000 census. Now, the last 4 years have not been kind to the current administration and the 2000 election was a hair-splitter in some states. We can't assume that each state will vote the same way. If that were the case, then the Republicans won the election just by the census redistribution.

Keep dreaming.

I know that NewsMax is a conservative leaning news source, but let's use their recent analysis of the polls in the swing states. The article comes across as an honset, non-partisan analysis.

So; let's adjust the 2000 election results to reflect these current polls.

Here's my voodoo prognosis.

What it tells me is that the Republican party will HAVE to carry both Ohio and Florida in order to win the election. This assumes that the Democrats will take Pennsylvania, which I think is likely. Both Bush and Kerry have campaigned hard there, and it went that way last election.

The polls have Ohio leaning Republican at this moment, but the numbers are pretty close. Florida is anyone's game since the population has expanded here quite a bit, and all along what they call the I-4 corridor, the stretch of Interstate from Tampa to Jacksonville. These voters have moved here from other states and are a fairly even mix.

That's how I get my bottom line. This election can go either way, but from my view down here in the Democrat bastion called Broward County, Florida... The Republicans have their work cut out for them...

Posted by Michael at August 8, 2004 10:43 PM